Friday, August 28, 2009

Creative Revenue

It was recently announced that the forthcoming budget deficit over the next 10 years is an astonishing $9 trillion... with a t. This is a lot of money that we do not have. There are approximately 100 million households in the U.S., so if one does the math, this equates to $9,000 per year, per household extra that each household will have to earn to cover only the principle of this borrowing. I am not aware of a whole lot of households who have an extra $9,000 lying around with which to write the check to the IRS on April 15. Needless to say, the government must come up with some creative ways to make money. I offer a suggestion.

Weekends in fall are one of the most exciting times of year for millions across the country. It is not because of wonderful family outings or bond-building sessions of leaf raking in the backyard straight out of the JC Penney catalog (although these are fabulous ways to spend your time). It is all about football. Watching football is great, getting drunk tailgating at a football game is even better. One of the activities football fans are most passionate about is gambling on football games. Yes, evil, life crushing, debacherous gambling.

Americans love to gamble. Las Vegas has become THE place to go on vacation. Many of us frequent our local Indian casinos, which are springing up everywhere like Starbucks coffee shops circa 1996. For all of the protestations by various groups, I would like to borrow some of the logic of Adam Carolla for a minute and pose a question to you. Close your eyes for a minute and think about everyone you know who has lost everything due to a crippling gambling problem. I'll wait. Think of anyone? Probably not. This is because there are not millions upon millions of people who are recovering gambling addicts. There are some, to be sure, but the problem is not epidemic like some would like to have you believe.

We see gambling at casinos, gambling in the form of lottery tickets, even sports teams hosting Casino Night to raise money for charity. Clearly, as a society, we have decided that gambling is part of the mainstream and acceptable within reason. Why is it that we have drawn the line with sports betting? We allow it in Nevada but nowhere else. Every year we hear about how many tens or hundreds of millions of dollars are legally bet on the Super Bowl. How much more is being bet either through illegal bookmakers or online to offshore gambling sites? How much is being wagered throughout the year considering all of the thousands of college and professional football games played? How much more would be bet if people could do it legally? How much tax revenue could be had if all of that money was being wagered legally here in the U.S.?

When sports betting happens legally, taxes are paid regardless of who wins. If the casinos win, they pay taxes on the profit they make. If the bettors win, they, if they are following tax law which would require a whole other discussion, would pay taxes on the extra income they earn from it. Either way, the government gets a piece. Imagine if there were licensed bookmakers or legal online betting sites in this country for the government to tax. This could be billions coming back into the government till, helping to ease the financial burden of all of the government spending that has spiraled upward in the past 10 years.

This argument could also be applied to poker. Sports gambling and poker are two forms of gambling, (and yes, while poker is considered a skill game, every bet has an expected value and there are odds that govern winning and losing, therefore making it gambling) that have the highest expectations for experienced players because both allow you to use information to make smarter wages, either on sporting events, or choosing better bets while playing poker. We should reward folks for choosing to gamble in a way that can actually have a long-term positive expectation. Instead we shun these players and force them to play games which only have negative expectations. (I am counting blackjack because while the expectation is positive if you count cards, you usually cannot do that long enough to come out ahead long-term before the casinos ban you. Using basic strategy, which casinos do allow, affords the house a small edge. If this made no sense to you, read Casino Gambling for Dummies by Kevin Blackwood.)

I could spend an eternity on why sports betting has been stopped at every turn by politicians in Washington and how this links to all of the extra spending that Uncle Sam has been doing recently. Perhaps I will in another post. It suffices to say that there is a lot of extra revenue waiting to be claimed by the government if it were to allow people to legally do what they are already doing illegally. Granted, this alone will not solve the problem of where to come up with the $9,000 per household every year for 10 years, but no one thing will solve the problem. It will take many small solutions to add up to a big solution and this would be a great start.

Thanks for reading and big balls.

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